JASTRO’S ASTROS—2008

Houston Astro fans will en= joy another wild and crazy season in 2008, one that should culminate in a better finish than the 2007 season. = The biggest improvement will be in runs scored, where the Astros finished 13th in the NL and last in the Central Division. Offensively in 2008, expect necess= ary improvements over the 2007 season in extra-base hits and net stolen bases.<= span style=3D'mso-spacerun:yes'> The starting pitching, bullpen, fi= elding and bench should be no worse than the very mediocre 2007 season; and there = is considerable potential upside, allowing Jastro—the eternal Astros optimist—to project (yet again) that the Astros will win the NL Centr= al!

STARTING PITCHING

Jastro will miss Woody, th= e only player not to make Jastro’s projected 25-man roster this season, and hopes the Astros will hit against him in the NL Central this year. Oswalt will continue to compete fo= r the NL Cy Young.&nb= sp; Loyal readers know that Jastro expects Wandy to compete for, and win, this award in 2008. Backe wil= l need to make the 30 starts and 200 innings pitched that he has set for personal goals this season, and Jastro is optimistic that= he will. Sampson and Chacon shou= ld prove capable as starting pitchers in the NL Central, and Paulino, Nieve an= d Cassel will be waiting in the wings by the dog-days= of the summer. All will benefit = from a much more potent offense.

BULLPEN<= /b>

Valverde was brought in to become the Astros’ closer and is coming off of a career year in 2007. Jastro would prefer that Valverde cut down on his ritualistic antics and pitch faster, keeping the fielders on their toes rather than lulling them to sleep. Villarreal, Brocail, Borkowski, Mo= ehler and Geary are adequate arms. = Wesley Wright will be fun to watch out of the bullpen and could prove to be a supe= r-star (just don’t mistake his pimples for shaving-nicks). Jastro has never been a fan of the specialist roles in the bullpen (closer, situational lefties, set-up men, e= tc.) because of negative connotations that the roles suggest. Why not just win the games in blow= -out fashion?

OUTFIELD=

El Caballo will be the lead-footed Carlos Lee we all expect in the field. With half of the games at Juicy-Fr= uit Field, Lee will be fine. He actually is very good at playing balls off of the scoreboard—with his right-hand—and will be good for at least the eight assists he was credited with in 2007. Michael Bourn and Hunter Pence will be above average outfielders. The weakness in the outfield may p= rove to be a tendency for Bourn to shade toward left-field, leaving a hole in the center-right-center power allies and allowing too many triples to the opposition.

INFIELD<= /b>

Jastro likes Berkman at first-base and would love to see him play more aggressively in bunt situations. The middle-infield should be better than in 2007 after the Everett injury. Tejada is a defensive improvement over the post-Everett period in 2007. Wigginton carries a bad rap at thi= rd, possibly because he is so aggressive. Jastro thinks his lead-glove may prove to be rubber and bounce back = to respectability this season. At catcher, Jastro is ecstatic with Ausmus as the mentor for Towles.

AT THE PLATE

The 2008 Astros’ hit= ters may smash all offensive records. The projected line-up is full of doubles-hitters that should hit for= a much higher average than the .260 average Astro fans have become accustomed to. Fine-tuning the batting o= rder will be the biggest problem with the 2008 Astros’ offense and Jastro = will address this later in this report. First, Jastro will discuss of the projected starters on an individual basis.

MICHAEL BOURN: The projected lead-off hitter, nic= knamed “380”, possesses one trait that everybody agrees upon—his speed. His very limited exper= ience in the major-leagues makes him an unknown. Jastro chooses to ignore his= 127 MLB at-bats in limited play with the Phillies and concentrate on the closely watched results from the 2008 Grapefruit League, which are less impressive = than touted. Not only has he faile= d to hit left-handed pitchers well, but he has not appeared capable of hitting g= ood pitching, period. It appears = that Bourn will whiff twice as often as he will walk. The opposition will not allow Bour= n to consistently reach base on infield hits, nor will they allow him to steal b= ases at will. Bourn has the potent= ial, but Jastro—never a proponent of platooning—may choose to start Bourn only against right-handed pitchers.&= nbsp; His walks may often equate to doubles with his speed. In a Tony LaRussa kind of way, Bourn’s on-base percentage may well increase if he hits in the number= eight spot in the line-up.

HUNTER PENCE: Everything points to this player becoming a super-star in the major-leagues. He smashes the ball and has above-average speed. He is a spark-plug for any major-league offense and it is absurd to picture Pence anywhere below the third position in a batting order.=

LANCE BERKMAN: Lance had an off-year in 2007, in = both the doubles and homers categories. Expect around a .300 average with over 100 RBI, 30 doubles and 35 ho= mers in 2008.

CARLOS LEE: Lee is a consistent RBI machine, a= s we all know. Lee likes to hit in= the clean-up spot and play in all 162 games.&n= bsp; In this Astros’ line-up, Lee should probably bat in the fifth = spot—between Berkman and Tejada. Lee has expressed disappointment in batting anywhere but the clean-up spot, which s= ays a lot about his teamwork. Coop might counter Lee’s objections by starting Cruz in left more often. That may bring Lee closer to accep= ting the fifth spot in the batting order.

MIGUEL TEJADA: Another power-hitting batter that = also hits for average, Tejada probably belongs in the third spot in the batting order.

TY WIGGINTON: A more than capable RBI producer i= n the seventh spot in the batting order.

J.R. TOWLES: Towles is a relative unknown in the major-leagues but appears to be an above-average hitter with power. Towles should get approximately 70= % of the starts at catcher and seems slotted for the eighth spot in the batting order.

KAZOU MATSUI: Jastro has not seen enough of Mats= ui to have strong feelings on this player. Looking at his five years of major-league service and his spring with the Astros, Matsui looks like a part-time player that has moved around a bu= nch and plays his best in Colorad= o. Could be a first, second or eighth= spot batter. The accountant in Jas= tro says not to put much faith in statistics (figures don’t lie, liars figure), but his is a switch-hitter with a decent on-base percentage.<= /o:p>

STARTING PITCHERS: Jastro likes the Astros’ sta= rting pitchers with the bat, especially with two converted position players in the rotation (Backe and Sampson).

BENCH

The Astros have assembled = the best group of bench players that Jastro can recall them ever having.

BRAD AUSMUS: Ausmus actually stung the ball wit= h some authority on a few occasions this spring (i.e. the Jim Edmond’s catch= in the 2004 NL Championship game 7). Oswalt has made no secret that he prefers Ausmus as his receiver and Jastro thinks Coop should accommodate that request.
GEOFF BLUM: Good utility player that bats from= both sides of the plate. More powe= r than Loretta. Blum is better at th= ird base than Loretta and may see some platooning with Wigginton. Blum should get the start for the injured Matsui when the Astros face right-handed pitching. Blum will also serve as a third ca= tcher.

MARK LORETTA: Loretta is a decent clutch-hitter = off of the bench and a capable (in ASTRO-terms) second baseman. Loretta should get most of the sta= rts for the injured Matsui against lefties.

DARIN ERSTAD: Erstad is a veteran major-leaguer = with one very accomplished season. Erstad looked good at the plate this spring and can play firs= t base as well as the outfield, where he provides insurance for the youngsters Bou= rn and Pence.

JOSE CRUZ: Cruz should have been teamed with = his mentor-Father years ago. Cruz enjoyed a torrid spring at the plate and deserves a starting job on this team. He should be the starti= ng left-fielder in the nine games played during the regular season (with Lee as the DH) in American League ballparks and deserves strong consideration as a starter when the Astros face left-handed pitching.

THOMAS PEREZ: A veteran that made the roster due= to Matsui’s injured status. Perez should see very limited action this season, and will leave the 25-man roster with Matsui’s return.

SKIPPER<= /b>

Coop has managed his first= spring as the skipper of a major-league team in excellent fashion. The challenge ahead for the skippe= r will be dealing with the egos of mainly Lee and Berkman regarding the batting or= der. Jastro tired of Garner’s con= stant chanting of “baseball is a marathon, not a sprint”, a phrase Ja= stro equates to losing. Every sing= le game is important; just ask the Mets, Brewers or Diamondbacks!

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